An overabundance of certainty

Posted by Saint Somebody on Wednesday, January 06, 2010 8:08:50 AM

John Kerry never overcame the ‘ponderous and arrogant’ persona he projected in the 2004 campaign. When a politician is handicapped by his own personality traits, good moments often get clouded over and their impact diminished.

During a presidential debate in 2004, Kerry commented that Bush’s commitment to his Iraq policy should be assessed differently. It is “possible” he noted, “to be certain, but still wrong.” Presidents don't do “I was wrong.” Presidents will deny a mistake and defend the ensuing policy. The heart of damage control is rationaization and presidents are hostage to damage control.

Kerry understood that incumbents reluctantly revisit their thinking after the money has been spent or the lives have been lost. But they never acknowledge the mistake. It is both politically untenable and ego-crushing. At these times, the responsibility shifts to the opposition and the voters.

Even by political standards, Barack Obama possesses an overabundance of certainty. We should consider that carefully as we approach the mid-term elections. If the evidence reveals that the effect of the stimulus package was negligible or detrimental, what is the incumbent's next move? If global warming consensus breaks under the weight of future evidence, will Cap and Trade go away? No. We live in an age of irrevocable mistakes, the age of certain, still wrong, yet undeterred.

In politics, circumspection and humility play like weakness. The back-up plan is never re-assess. It is always double down.

We are sometimes free to indulge the psychological insecurities of politicians. Sometimes the price is too high. Our solvency and security should not be left captive to those who neither can, nor will change direction.

The pendulum is swinging to the political right for now. As we send Republicans back to Washington, listen for that ring of certainty. Ask the indelicate question. Sounds great, but what if you’re wrong?